Dallas McLaughlin

While most “experts” are only going so far to guess the outcome of divisions, I’m taking it one step further.  I’ve challenged myself to predict the outcome of every NFC North game for 2008.  People do this quite often, but typically only on a weekly basis.  I think that’s too easy.  I’m gonna throw all caution to the wind and tell you who will win each and every match up, and why.

Week 1

Detroit 30 (1-0) @ Atlanta 10

• Detroit will have the advantage of a veteran quarterback in Jon Kitna.  Atlanta is going with the “future of the franchise” in Matt Ryan.  With a worthless run game and a rookie quarterback in Atlanta, Detroit is the sure bet.

  • Post Week 1 Update: Well, I was off the mark here.  That “Worthless run game” was just Michael Turner running for 220 yards, and the rookie quarterback?  He went 9/13 and 161 yards.  The Lions tried to run the ball for some reason, this put them down 21-0 early.  Once they decided to throw they made a game out of it.  Only 22% of fantasy players picked Atlanta.

    • Actual Score: Detroit 21 (0-1) – Atlanta 34

Chicago 17 (0-1) @ Indianapolis 27

• This is actually a tougher decision than it appears.  Peyton Manning may not play in the opener, and if he does it will be his first action all year.  Jeff Saturday, Peyton’s Center is out at least the first 4 games also.  The Bears defense is a question mark, and whoever plays in Peyton’s place will still be better than Kyle Orton.  Indianapolis it is.

  • Post Week 1 Update: Well I don’t feel bad about missing this one.  Only 5% of online “Pick Em’” players picked the Bears to win.  I do give myself credit for playing the fence.  I outlined the ways and reasons the Bears could win.  Peyton played like ass, and the Bears defense played like they wanted to be paid.

    • Actual Score: Chicago 29 (1-0) – Indianapolis 13

Minnesota 20 (1-0) @ Green Bay 17 (0-1)

• Aaron Rodgers’ first regular season start will be made even more difficult having to debut in front of his home crowd, and against a conference rival.  With Jared Allen after him, Rodgers will throw more balls to the Vikings defense than he will to his own players.

  • Post Week 1 Update: Aaron Rodgers played like a grizzled vet.  He showed no signs of being a “rookie” which was very surprising.  Minnesota’s high priced defensive line seemed invisible the entire game.  Tarvaris Jackson played well, he didn’t lose the game (I blame the TE on that last interception), which is all the Vikings need out of him.

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 19 (0-1) – Green Bay 24 (1-0)

Week 1 Wrap-up:  0-3 Overall

• Ouch.  An 0 and 3 start is never a good thing.  To my credit though, I was in the majority on all three picks.  According to Yahoo! Sports Pick Em’ results, which aren’t available until after all week 1 games have been played, 22% picked Atlanta to win, only 5% picked the Bears, and 35% picked the Packers.  This is the beauty of the NFL.  Better luck next week.

Week 2

Chicago 13 (0-2) @ Carolina 24

• This one again comes down to the Bears defense.  Carolina will be missing Steve Smith due to suspension, but they will have DeAngelo Williams and the rookie Jonathan Stewart running all over the place.  If the Bears can stop the run, they can win, other wise it’s game over.  I’m betting the latter.

  • Post Week 2 Update:  Chicago is trying to return to it’s 2006 glory and win games on the backs of their defense.  Unfortunately Carolina wasn’t having that.  The rookie Stewart had a great game running for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries.

    • Actual Score: Chicago 17 (1-1) – Carolina 20

Green Bay 31 (1-1) @ Detroit 28 (1-1)

• This game is on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers.  He’ll have the benefit of getting his feet wet outside of Lambeau.  Detroit is garbage against the pass (last in the league last season).  Ryan Grant won’t sneak up on anyone, so the run will be stopped early.  I’m picking Green Bay for this one.  I have a feeling Aaron Rodgers will have a solid “redemption” game.

  • Post Week 2 Update:  Rodgers had a great game outside Lambeau.  He threw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Like I said, Grant was held to 20 yards on 15 carries.  The Lions had to play from behind causing them to abandon the run, and forcing Jon Kitna to throw the ball, throwing 3 Interceptions.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 48 (2-0) – Detroit 25 (0-2)

Indianapolis 27 @ Minnesota 10 (1-1)

• Peyton Manning will most likely be in this game.  Minnesota finished the 2007 season dead last in pass defense.  Look for the Colts to skip the run game and come out throwing.  Jared Allen will need to be worth his weight in gold if he plans to put a stop to Manning in this one.

  • Post Week 2 Update: As predicted, the Colts only gained 25 yards of rushing.  Minnesota had a 15-0 but the inability of the offense to move the ball through the air cost them the game.  Unless Minnesota can figure out how to pass, it’s gonna be another long season.

    • Actual Score: Indianapolis 18 – Minnesota 15 (0-2)

Week 2 Wrap-up: 3-3 Overall

• I fought back to .500 this week.  The Green Bay game was actually a one possession game with under 3 minutes left, so the final score doesn’t show how close it actually was.  Minnesota had a 15-0 lead and gave up 18 straight points to lose, and Chicago couldn’t generate enough offense for the Panthers.  Looking at the pick percentages realized by Yahoo! after the games, 86% picked the Packers to win; 53% the Panthers to win; and 79% picked the Colts to win.  That makes me 6-0 picking the majority (pick percentages are released after the games), unfortunately they haven’t all panned out.

Week 3

Tampa Bay 23 @ Chicago 27 (1-2)

• If Chicago can’t get a win here, consider them “on the clock” for the #1 pick next year.  The next game I can see them winning is week 6 against Atlanta, and then maybe week 10 against Tennessee.  With no run game and no pass game, the Bears defense needs to keep them in the game early.  If they have to play from behind, Kyle Orton will throw 4 interceptions a game.

  • Post Week 3 Update: Well I knew this one would be close, Orton didn’t throw 4 interception, but he did throw 2.  Matt Forte has been the saving grace for this Bears team.  Unfortunately for them, veteran Brian Griese threw a game tying touchdown with no time on the clock, then drove his team down the field to win in overtime.

    • Actual Score: Tampa Bay 27 – Chicago 24 (1-2)

Carolina 21 @ Minnesota 24 (2-1)

• Steve Smith will be back and looking to make a statement.  Last seasons #1 run defense will force Jake DelHomo to throw the ball.  If he can get some time to throw deep balls to Steve Smith they have a shot, otherwise they can start warming up the bus.  I’ll pick Minnesota, but both teams have an equal chance to win (or blow) this game.

  • Post Week 3 Update: I think my predictions were spot on for this one.  The Panthers ran for less than 50 yards and Delhomme was sacked 5 times.  Smith did catch 4 balls for 70 years, but for the most part he was kept in check.  With Jackson riding the bench, Frerotte didn’t blow the game and he just let our run game put it away.

    • Actual Score: Carolina 10 – Minnesota 20 (1-2)

Detroit 17 (2-1) @ San Francisco 13

• Mike Martz (Offensive Coordinator) went from Detroit to San Francisco this off season.  I can imagine Detroit knows what to expect out of him, and likewise for San Francisco.  I would bet this will be a defensive struggle, not only because the Mike Martz factor, but it’s also the #32 (SF) vs. #19 (DET) offenses from last season, don’t expect a real high scoring affair.  I’ll pick Detroit since San Francisco’s quarterback situation is up in the air.

  • Post Week 3 Update: I was way off the mark here.  It wasn’t a defensive struggle, it was just a struggle for the Lions.  J.T. O’Sullivan seems to be the answer for the 49′ers.  He had a good day picking apart the pathetic Lions secondary.  I guess I had higher expectations for the Lions this season.

    • Actual Score: Detroit 13 (0-3) – San Francisco 31

Dallas 27 @ Green Bay 16 (1-2)

• Green Bay will be back in Lambeau, but Dallas will just be too much to handle.  Dallas has too many weapons for the Green Bay defense to cover.  Aaron Rodgers will be facing a veteran defense full of past and present Pro Bowlers.  I only kept this one kind of close because it’s in Lambeau.  This could easily be a blow out.

  • Post Week 3 Update: This game wasn’t as close as the score seems.  For the last 9 minutes of the game Green Bay just threw up Hail Mary’s and went for it every 4th down.  The “too many weapons” was the deciding factor.  Romo hit 9 different receivers and his running backs ran for 142 yards, and 76 yards.  Rodgers did end up with some decent numbers, but they got slightly inflated with all the Hail Mary’s.  He’s still the best quarterback in the NFC North.

    • Actual Score: Dallas 27 – Green Bay 16 (2-1)

Week 3 Wrap-up: 5-5 Overall

• Detroit’s been a let down, and the Bears are overachieving.  Unless something changes these two are gonna screw my predictions.  Looking at the Yahoo pick spreads, I was only with the majority 2 out of 4 times this week, and one of the two I wasn’t, I was right.  Maybe Minnesota can get on track with Frerotte behind center, and the Bears should start cooling off pretty soon.

Week 4

Green Bay 21 (1-3) @ Tampa Bay 34

• If Green Bay can somehow manage a win here, it could turn their whole season around.  Unfortunately for them, Jeff Garcia will provide consistent passing, and if healthy, Cadillac Williams will have a good run game.  Green Bay will be playing from behind against last years #1 pass defense which means more rookie mistakes for Aaron Rodgers.

  • Post Week 4 Update: Aaron Rodgers has struggle his last two games, and the Packers have lost both of them.  I was right about the pass defense being tough, causing 3 interceptions from Rodgers.  Although it wasn’t Williams getting it done on the ground, Tampa Bay had a great day running the ball.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 21 (2-2) – Tampa Bay 30

Minnesota 17 (3-1) @ Tennessee 16

• Tennessee’s biggest threat is Vince Young, and that’s not throwing the ball.  Minnesota has the #1 rush defense, and that was before Jared Allen arrived.  LenDale White won’t be able to get much going, and Young will be kept inside the pocket.  Tennessee has the #5 defense from a season ago.  As long as Tarvaris Jackson can keep it close, I pick Minnesota to pull it out in the end.

  • Post Week 4 Update: This prediction is an example of how hard it is to predict the season, before the season starts.  This game didn’t have Vince Young or Tarvaris Jackson.  For some reason the Vikings tried to be someone they aren’t.  When you have a guy like Adrian Peterson, you hand him the ball all day, not throw 44 times.  Even so, the Vikings had a chance to drive down and win the game, but a costly interception ended any come back dreams.

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 17 (1-3) – Tennessee 30

Philadelphia 34 @ Chicago 17 (1-3)

• The Eagles offense will be a lot to handle for the Bears.  The Bears defense took a hard fall from grace following their Super Bowl (loss) season.  Donovan McNabb has two speedy receivers in Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown.  They also have one of the biggest duel threat running backs in the game in Brian Westbrook.  I’m expecting the Eagles offense to overwhelm the once great Bears defense.

  • Post Week 4 Update: Again, a victim of the early prediction.  The Eagles didn’t have Kevin Curtis of Brian Westbrook in this game.  The Bears defense came to play this time.  They were playing like it was 2006 all over again.  Orton threw 2 interceptions, and lost 2 fumbles, but the Eagles couldn’t capitalize on the mistakes.

    • Actual Score: Philadelphia 20 – Chicago 24 (2-2)

Week 4 Wrap-up: 6-7 Overall

• This week was tough.  The challenge of this whole thing was to pick the winners between Preseason, and regular season, not knowing the variables that might come into effect.  This week was an example of that.  At the start of the season no one knew the Bears defense would actually show up, no one predicted Vince Young and Jackson would be on the sidelines by week 3. I also relied on Westbrook to beat the Bears, and since he was injured, he took the majority of the Eagles offense with him.

Week 5

Chicago 10 (1-4) @ Detroit 21 (3-1)

• As all NFC North inter-conference games, this could go either way.  I give the nod to the Lions only because they’ve had previous success this season.  If the Bears come in with no confidence, they’ll leave with even less.

  • Post Week 5 Update: Hindsight is always 20/20.  The Lions are absolutely awful this season, and the Bears actually look pretty good.  Kyle Orton’s playing like a man, and so is the defense.  The Lions are clearly a terrible team, but if the Bears keep playing like this they can make the playoffs no problem.

    • Actual Score: Chicago 34 (3-2) – Detroit 7 (0-4)

Atlanta 13 @ Green Bay 24 (2-3)

• There’s not a lot of good things you can say about Atlanta.  Rookie quarterback, unproven run game, and the 29th overall defense from a year ago.  Green Bay has a chance to completely blow Atlanta out of the water.  I think they’ll jump out to a early lead and then “work on” some things, resulting in a closer final score than it really was.

  • Post Week 5 Update: This is the second time I’ve picked against Atlanta, attributing the rookie QB and run game.  It’s also the second time I couldn’t have been more wrong.  Matt Ryan had an average day, but Michael Turner ran for 121 yards and a touchdown, in Lambeau.  Aaron Rodgers played the “I’m so hurt but I’m gonna tough it out” card all day and lost.

    • Actual Score: Atlanta 27 – Green Bay 24 (2-3)

Minnesota 27 (3-2) @ New Orleans 41

• This is a tough match up for the Vikings.  New Orleans has the #3 pass offense from a year ago, and the Vikings have the last place (32nd) pass defense.  New Orleans did nothing but improve their pass game by adding Jeremy Shockey.  The Vikings will be playing from behind early which takes Adrian Peterson out of the game.  Tarvaris Jackson will be forced to throw, and throw often which is not a good thing for the Vikings.

  • Post Week 5 Update: No one could have predicted what happened in this one.  New Orleans gift wrapped this one.  They gave the game to the Vikings atleast 3 or 4 times.  The Vikings who are infamous at throwing games away, tried, and failed to give this one back to the Saints many times.

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 30 (2-3) - New Orleans 27

Week 5 Wrap-up: 6-10 Overall

• I’ll give the famous Minnesotan “Oofta…” for this week. My second 0-3 week of the season. It’s amazing how fast things can change from preseason to week 5. Green Bay pretty much packed it in against the Falcons, the Saints handed the win (multiple times) to the Vikings, and who would have guessed the Lions would be AS terrible as they actually are?

Week 6

Chicago 20 (2-4) @ Atlanta 10

• This will be a match up of two struggling teams.  This can go either way, but I’m gonna have to give it to the Bears because of the defense.  Urlacher and Briggs will be on Matt Ryan all day long.  Look for a lot of ugly offense, and a lot of field goals.

  • Post Week 6 Update: Well, I did predict a lot of field goals.  We have 8 total, accounting for over half the points on the day.  On the other hand, both quarterbacks looked pretty good.  Orton is surprising a lot of people, and Matt Ryan is overachieving as a rookie.  In the end, the Falcons won on a last second field goal.

    • Actual Score: Chicago 20 (3-3) – Atlanta 22

Detroit 31 (3-2) @ Minnesota 34 (4-2)

• Detroit will come out passing, and Minnesota will have to try to keep up.  Minnesota does not want to get in a shoot out with the Veteran Jon Kitna.  Detroit has a surprisingly good pass game (9th), while Minnesota’s is only 28th.  Minnesota will want to keep the game low scoring, and keep the ball in Adrian Petersons hands.  This game could go either way, and will ultimately have a big impact on the NFC North Championship.

  • Post Week 6 Update: This was one of the ugliest games I’ve ever seen.  The Vikings seemed intent on losing to a terrible Lions team.  In the end, the Lions wanted to lose just a little bit more than the Vikings.  Adrian Peterson had a pretty good day with 111 yards on the ground.

    • Actual Score: Detroit 10 (0-5) -Minnesota 12 (3-3)

Green Bay 21 (2-4) @ Seattle 28

• Mike Holmgren (Seattle Head Coach) always does good against his former team.  With a more experienced quarterback, and a proven running back (be it on another team…), look for Seattle to minimize mistakes and maintain control in this one.

  • Post Week 6 Update: Any chance Seattle had in this game went out the window a few weeks earlier, along with their 1st and 2nd string quarterbacks and three top receivers.  Charlie Frye was the starting quarterback for the Seahawks and threw for only 83 yards and 2 interceptions.  Seattles leading rusher had 44 yards, and the leading receiver had 23.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 27 (3-3) – Seattle 17

Week 6 Wrap-up: 7-12 Overall

• I severly under predicted the ability of Marr Ryan and Michael Turner in Atlanta.  They’ve come out swinging and they’ve knocked out the NFC North going 3-0 (and making my predictions 0-3).  The Vikings are looking like they want to win about as bad as I want an enema.

Week 7

Minnesota 21 (5-2) @ Chicago 20 (2-5)

• If my predictions hold true, Chicago will be in a pretty tough spot by this game.  Chicago always plays well in Soldiers Field, and a conference game can be won by anyone.  Adrian Peterson nearly set the single game rushing record against the Bears a year ago (he did later against the Chargers), look for a repeat performance.  As long as Minnesota can minimize turnovers and force a few field goals, eventually their offense will beat the Bears defense.

  • Post Week 7 Update: This game was a defensive nightmare.  The Vikings put up 439 yards of offense, and the Bears 327.  The difference was the amount of mistakes.  The Vikings threw 4 interceptions, had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and a muffed punt returned for a touchdown.  After the first half, the Bears were lucky to be in it.  They took their opportunity and didn’t look back.

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 41 (3-4) - Chicago 48 (4-3)

Detroit 24 (4-2) @ Houston 21

• Detroit’s a passing team going against a below-average pass defense.  As long as the Lions offensive line can keep Mario Williams out of the backfield, I think they will have a pretty good day.  If Mario Williams starts disrupting the rhythm of the pass game, the Lions might be in trouble.

  • Post Week 7 Update: Man, Detroit is looking rough.  Kitna was terrible, but Dan Orlovsky?  Orlovsky actually had a decent game for the Lions, but their defense got taken to the woodshed against the Texans.  Matt Schaub completed 83% of his passed for almost 300 yards.  Detroit got a few “good will” points in the 4th quarter, but the game was never as close as the score looks.

    • Actual Score: Detroit 21 (0-6) - Houston 28

Indianapolis 31 @ Green Bay 14 (2-4)

• By this point in the season, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, both recovering from knee injuries, should be on the same page.  If thats the case, I don’t give Green Bay a shot in hell in this one.  Harrison and the speedy Reggie Wayne should have solid games against the average Packers defense.

  • Post Week 7 Update: Typically, beating the Colts would be something to hang your hat on… not this year. Peyton Manning had a awful day.  He completed only 50% of his passes with 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.  Aaron Rodgers played another steady and consistent game and got things done.

    • Actual Score: Indianapolis 14- Green Bay 38 (4-3)

Week 7 Wrap-up: 7-15 Overall

• Another 0-3 week… hey, this is a lot harder than you would think.  I challenge you to try it.  The Vikings handed another win to the opponent (Bears), the Lions continue their decent to the bottom (thy may have officially reached it), and the Colts continue to suck it up.

Week 8

Washington 21 @ Detroit 23 (5-2)

I’m gonna make a lofty prediction here.  By Week 8, Washington will be in a quarterback controversy.  A struggling Jason Campbell will have the fans crying for Colt Brennan.  I think Detroit will use this to pick apart a below average Washington pass defense.

• Post Week 8 Update: I don’t think anyone in Washington even knows who Colt Brennan is at this point, let alone want a new quarterback.  Jason Campbell can’t do wrong this year.  Dan Orlovsky had another O.K. game, but nothing too spectacular.  The fact that he ran for 17 yards, and still almost lead the team in rushing says a lot about the Lions offense.

  • Actual Score: Washington 25 – Detroit 17 (0-7)

Week 8 Wrap-up: 7-16 Overall

• With one game this week, it was all or nothing.  I was either batting 1000 or I was sitting on the bench.  I definitely didn’t hit one out of the park this week.  I don’t know what I was thinking when I put the words “Picking apart the defense” in a favorable sentence for the Detroit Lions.  I see I have Detroit beating the Bears next week, that’s rough…

  
  

Week 9

Detroit 27 (6-2) @ Chicago 24 (2-6)

• Detroit is gonna keep the train rolling under the radar.  Steady and consistent play by veteran Jon Kitna will keep the Lions in a lot of games.   This game will be no different.  The Bears will struggle to keep up with the consistent scoring drives and eventually fall behind.

  • Post Week 9 Update: Okay, so maybe the Lions didn’t “keep the train rolling”, but they did almost pull one out here.  When you got running backs like Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson, you can’t have a quarter back like Dan Orlovsky throw the football 47 times.  Orton went down with a nasty ankle injury, and Grossman was less than spectacular filling in.  The Bears better pray Orton can play the remainder of the season.

    • Actual Score: Detroit 23 (0-8) - Chicago 27 (5-3)

Houston 34 @ Minnesota 37 (6-2)

• Houston gives up a lot of yards on the ground.  This plays into the hands of the Vikings and Adrian Peterson.  Houston will be forced to throw so expect Matt Schaub to look for Andre Johnson early and often.  A passing team against a poor passing defense, and a running team against a poor run defense.  I would look for a high scoring game.  This one will be decided in turnovers.

  • Post Week 9 Update: I feel I did pretty good on this one.  The Texans threw for almost 400 yards, and only rushed for 62, and Minnesota only threw for 182, but rushed for almost 200.  Andre Johnson only caught 4 balls, but that’s because Schaub went out with an injury, and Sage Rosenfels threw to the tightend for the rest of the game.

    • Actual Score: Houston 21 - Minnesota 28 (4-4)

Green Bay 31 (3-4) @ Tennessee 17

• I’m predicting Aaron Rodgers to be a hot and cold quarterback, similar to Rex Grossman but not as terrible when he’s cold.  Vince Young doesn’t have me convinced as anything other than a rushing quarterback yet.  I think Aaron Rodgers will have a good day against Tennessee, and the 1-dimensional Titans offense will struggle against the Packers

  • Post Week 9 Update: I was correct in my assumption that the Titans pass game would struggle against the Pack.  They threw the ball 37 times, for only 180 yards.  That’s only 4.9 yards an attempt.  This was a defensive struggle, with 7 field goals, resulting in 21 of the 35 total points.  It was ugly, but the Titans continued to find ways to get it done.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 16 (4-4) – Tennessee 19

  Week 9 Wrap-up: 8-18 Overall

  I went 1-2 this week, and that’s because 2 of the teams that have screwed me weekly, continued to screw me this week. No one saw the Titans coming and they have simply steam rolled everyone they have come across. They find ways to win when their backs are against the wall. And Detroit… wow, people predicted the to be bad, I predicted them to be above average, but NO ONE predicted them to be winless after week 9.

Week 10

Tennessee 20 @ Chicago 27 (3-6)

• Similar to the previous weeks game against the Packers, the 1-dimensional Tennessee run based offense will struggle against the likes of Urlacher, Briggs, and Ogunleye.  I’m going out on a limb and predicting Rex Grossman to be starting by week 10.  It just so happens this will be one of the good games he’ll play all season.

  • Post Week 10 Update: I was correct when I said the Titans would struggle against the Bears’ run defense.  The Titans only ran for 19 yards on 29 attempts.  The fortunate thing for the Titans, the Bears defense only felt like stopping the run.  Kerry Collins threw for 289 yards completing almost 75% of his passes.

    • Actual Score: Tennessee 21 – Chicago 14 (5-4)

Green Bay 20 (3-5) @ Minnesota 21 (7-2)

• Another tough conference game that could go either way.  I’m gonna go with Minnesota in this one, for the simple fact that it’s Rodgers’ first visit to the Metrodome.  The ‘dome is widely regarded as one of the loudest, if not the loudest stadiums in all of the NFL.  I’ll keep the score close since it is a rivalry game, but I’m gonna side with Minnesota.

  • Post Week 10 Update: Close scoring game, check; Rodgers struggling, check; Vikings win in a close one, check.  Add a touchdown to each side and I was right on the money.  Rodgers had a horrible day.  Jared Allen and the Williams brothers were in his grill all day.  Frerotte threw 3 interceptions, but the golden son Adrian Peterson ran for almost 200 yards, including a game winning run with 2 minutes left.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 27 (4-5) – Minnesota 28 (5-4)

Jacksonville 31 @ Detroit 17 (6-3)

• Detroit will take it’s first real beating in week 10.  This will be the first top tier offense Detroit will face.  David Garrard and Jones-Drew will have a field day on the awful Detroit defense.  The Lion’s just won’t have the weapons to keep up.

  • Post Week 10 Update: While it was a beating, it definitely wasn’t the first of the year for the Lions.  Like I predicted, Garrard had a near perfect day with 238 passing yards, and a QB Rating of 128.4.  Maurice Jones-Drew also had a monsterous day.  While he only ran for 70 yards, he still scored 3 touchdowns.

    • Actual Score: Jacksonville 38 - Detroit 14 (0-9)

  Week 10 Wrap-up: 10-19 Overall

  Alright, 2-1, I got something going now. Everyone knows I break late. Oh yeah, the Titans again. I think if you read up, and probably in the following weeks, I pick them to lose every game. I don’t know what to say about that… ooops.

Week 11

Detroit 24 (6-4) @ Carolina 34

• Back to back games against tough offenses for Detroit.  Carolina doesn’t have that strong of a pass game, but Steve Smith can catch fire at any time.  Williams and rookie Stewart will provide a solid run game giving Delhomme the play-action pass.  Similar to Jacksonville, I would look for Carolina’s offense to be too much to handle.

  • Post Week 11 Update: Carolinas pass game struggled like I thought it would, and like I also predicted, Williams and Stewart combined for 250 yards rushing, and 3 touchdowns.  Steve Smith “caught fire” too, catching 59 of the Panthers 98 total passing yards.  Okay, maybe thats not catching fire, but the fact that he caught 6 of Carolinas 10 completions is pretty good.

    • Actual Score: Detroit 22 (0-10) - Carolina 31

Chicago 21 (4-6) @ Green Bay 17 (4-6)

• As previously mentioned, Urlacher will have the Bears defense in top gear by this time of the year.  That could spell trouble for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers.  I don’t think Grant or Brandon Jackson will be able to run on the Bears, so again, it depends on the Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers will need to have a great game, and hope whichever Bears quarterback gets the start has a worse than usual game.

  • Post Week 11 Update: Holy crap I missed the mark here.  Rodgers completed 76% of his passed for 223 yards, and Ryan Grant ran for 145 yards.  Orton struggled big time completing only 50% of passes for 133 yards.

    • Actual Score: Chicago 3 (5-5) – Green Bay 37 (5-5)

Minnesota 10 (7-3) @ Tampa Bay 21

• This will be a tough game against Minnesota.  Being a team that has relied on turnovers, they don’t seem to fair to good against conservative teams.  Jeff Garcia is the definition of conservative.  He won’t take many shots downfield, and in turn won’t be throwing interceptions.  The steady Tampa Bay offense and #2 overall defense (2007) will cause Tarvaris Jackson to struggle.

  • Post Week 11 Update: Just as expected, Jeff Garcia was very conservative with the ball, completing 23 of 30 passes with zero turnovers.  The Vikings actually played a pretty good game themselves.  No major mistakes, they just couldn’t keep the Buc’s defensive line from pressuring Frerotte all day.

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 13 (5-5) - Tampa Bay 19

  Week 11 Wrap-up: 12-20 Overall

  Another 2-1 week. That makes me 4-2 in the last 2 weeks. I figured I would start better than I did, and finish bad (after all the unforseen injuries and what not). Oh well, that’s why they play the games. I would have been good this week, but the division game got me. Even with my predictions dating back to preseason, I still think Chicago should have won. They just had nothing in the tank.

Week 12

Tampa Bay 21 @ Detroit 24 (7-4)

• Two veteran quarterbacks will go head to head in this one.  Statistically Garcia had a much better 2007 campaign, however in this one, I’m gonna give it to Kitna.  Kitna has more talent around him this season, meaning he has to take less chances.  Tampa Bay could easily pull this out, but I’m gonna take the underdog Lions in this one.

  • Post Week 12 Update: Well Kitna obviously wasn’t playing in this one, but I don’t think he would have made much of a difference anyway.  When you’re pulling has-beens out of retirement (Culpepper) to save your season, your seasons beyond saving.  The Bucs got it going early and often in this one.

    • Actual Score: Tampa Bay 38 – Detroit 20 (0-11)

Minnesota 27 (7-4) @ Jacksonville 34

• The Jacksonville offense is a well oiled machine by this time of year.  David Garrard simply doesn’t turn the ball over, and Maurice Jones-Drew is a hard to tackle running back.  Without the turnovers, Minnesota will fall behind early, meaning Tarvaris Jackson will be forced to throw the ball 35 times.  With his erratic decisions, he’ll be throwing a number of interceptions in this one.

  • Post Week 12 Update:  Well, so much for Jacksonville not turning the ball over.  Jacksonville had 5 fumbles (lost 3) and threw 2 interceptions.  This is especially out of the ordinary for David Garrard who has made his living off being a steady “not lose the game” type quarterback.  Peterson only had to run for 80 yards, and Frerotte only had to pass for 120 to pull this one out.

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 30 (6-5)- Jacksonville 12

Chicago 9 (4-7) @ St. Louis 17

• Chicago could be on to its 4th string quarterback (Nick Hill) by this time of the year.  Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are two injury prone players, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see one, if not both, miss this game.  I have a feeling this will be one of those games that both teams will be playing to not lose, instead of playing to win.  Look for St. Louis to squeek it out in the end.

  • Post Week 12 Update: Surprise, surprise, surprise… Jackson didn’t play due to injury and Bulger got knocked out of the game after 2 pass attempts.  Orton had a subpar game, but Chicago was able to pull it out on the ground with rookie Matt Forte running for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns.

    • Actual Score: Chicacgo 27 (6-5) – St. Louis 3

Green Bay 14 (4-7) @ New Orleans 41

• 2007’s #3 pass offense in New Orleans, at home against a sub-par Packers defense.  I’m gonna have to side with the weapons on the Saints team for this one.  The New Orleans pass game only got better this offseason by adding Jeremy Shockey.

  • Post Week 12 Update: Rodgers played by far his worst game of the season, and Brees was absolutely perfect against the Pack defense.  Brees completed 20 of 26 passes for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns with zero turnovers.  On top of that, Pierre Thomas (Who?) ran for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns.  It was almost uglier than I predicted.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 29 (5-6) - New Orleans 51

  Week 12 Wrap-up: 13-23 Overall

  Ouch, after two decent weeks, I roll a 1 and 3 for Week 12. I’m trying to inch closer to .500, but it just keeps slipping away. Again, Detroit sucks ass from a straw, no one figured Jacksonville would tank as badly as they have, and Chicago has strung together a few nice games. Better luck next week.

Week 13

Tennessee 21 @ Detroit 33 (8-4)

• I never realized it until now, but I really don’t see Tennessee as a competitive team this season.  I’ve picked them to lose every matchup in the NFC North so far.  Statistically, Tennessee was superior to Detroit in every aspect in 2007, but for some reason I’m going with Detroit.  I think Ernie Sims will terrorize Vince Young all day.

  • Post Week 13 Update: There’s not a whole lot to say about this one.  As I previously admitted, I never saw Tennessee coming, I don’t think anyone did.  Vince Young wasn’t in this one, but I think the Titans could have won with me at QB. Combined the Titans ran for almost 200 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The 200 yards on the ground by the Titans is more than the Lions total yardage on the day.
    

    • Actual Score: Tennessee 47 – Detroit 10 (0-12)

Carolina 24 @ Green Bay 17 (4-8)

• It will be getting cold in Lambeau by this time of year, but I’m still gonna pick the potent offense of Carolina over Green Bay.  Maybe I have no faith in Aaron Rodgers, but I don’t think he’s gonna perform real well in the heart of Favre Land, at least not this season.  The run game, and Steve Smith will be too much for the Packers defense.

  • Post Week 13 Update: Aaron Rodgers played out of his mind and the Packers still lost.  While the Panthers run game didn’t put up a whole lot of yardage, they still had 5 touchdowns on the ground.  As I predicted, Steve Smith had another monster game going over 100 yards.
    

    • Actual Score: Carolina 35 – Green Bay 31 (5-7)

Chicago 14 (4-8) @ Minnesota 27 (8-4)

• Another tough conference matchup.  This time around Minnesota has the added motivation of a playoff race, plus being at home.  Look for this to be a Adrian Peterson day.  The Bears will have nothing to play for by this point of the season.

  • Post Week 13 Update: While the Bears very much so  have something to play for, they didn’t seem to care during this game.  Adrian Peterson continued his massacre of the Bears by running for 130 yards and a touchdown.  Gus Frerotte even played a decent game only throwing 1 interception, which he made up for with a 99 yard touchdown pass to Bernard Berrian.
    

    • Actual Score: Chicago 14 (6-6) – Minnesota 34 (7-5)

Week 13 Wrap-up: 15-24 Overall

Not bad, 2-1 on the week, only missing the Lions again of course.  The Lions are well on their way to becoming the worst football team of all time.  It’s kinda weird too, they have a lot of talented players (minus the quarterback spot, which they’ve actually gotten good play from lately), they just can’t ever win.  They’ve been threw coaching staff after coaching staff, maybe it’s time to look in the front office and make some changes.

Week 14

Jacksonville 21 @ Chicago 10 (4-9)

• Jacksonville is a top AFC team.  They face some of the toughest defenses in all of the NFL.  A few years ago the Bears may have a had a shot, but unfortunately their defense is still trying to figure out how they lost the Super Bowl a few years ago.  Jacksonville all the way.

  • Post Week 14 Update: This prediction is kinda funny because everyone though the Bears would suck, and the Jaguars would be good.  It’s a complete role reversal.  Jacksonville has been awful this season for no apparent reason, and against all odds, the Bears have been pretty good.  This wasn’t a real great game, both teams played it pretty close to the chest.  No big numbers and no big mistakes.
    

    • Actual Score: Jacksonville 10 – Chicago 23 (7-6)

Minnesota 27 (8-5) @ Detroit 37 (9-4)

• A conference game with serious playoff implications.  Minnesota got Detroit the first time around, but I would look for Kitna to play it safe.  I think they will run the ball with rookie Kevin Smith, and take a few shots down field when needed.  Minnesota likes to stumble with playoff hopes on the line, this one will be no different.

  • Post Week 14 Update: Minnesota tried it’s hardest to “stumble with playoff hopes on the line”, the Lions just wanted to lose more.  Frerotte threw 2 balls to the other team and then had his 50 year old back broken.  Culpepper played his best game in 4 years passing for 220 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers.  The Vikings had an unlikely savior in Tarvaris Jackson who rallied the team for the gaming winning touchdown drive.
    

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 20 (8-5) – Detroit 16 (0-13)

Houston 21 @ Green Bay 31 (5-8)

• By week 13 I would expect Aaron Rodgers to have a good feel for NFL defenses.  Being out of the playoff hunt, Green Bay will have a few stress free games to finish out the season.  Look for Aaron Rodgers to have a good game against the 25th ranked pass defense.

  • Post Week 14 Update: This was a game Green Bay should have won.  Statistically, the game was as close as it can get, but being in Lambeau with your playoffs on the line, Green Bay couldn’t get it done.  This should add some fire to the Favre debate.
    

    • Actual Score: Houston 24 – Green Bay 21 (5-8)

Week 14 Wrap-up: 15-27 Overall

Haha, I had the Lions beating the Vikings for a playoff spot… wow. I went 0-3 on the week because the Packers and Bears. The Packers I still think should have won that game, the Bears are just way better (as in, possibly a Wild Card team at best) than I predicted. Jacksonville was also supposed to battle the Steelers for the AFC spot, I guess they’ve underachieved so far.

Week 15

New Orleans 41 @ Chicago 17 (4-10)

• Again, the weapons of New Orleans will be too much for the Bears to handle.  The Bears don’t have the corners to match up with Marques Colston, and the linebackers will be too slow to cover Reggie Bush when he lines up outside.  Drew Brees will have a big day passing the ball around.

  • Post Week 15 Update: The Bears just refuse to go away.  They may have dodged a bullet in this one.  Reggie Bush and Deuce McCallister were both hurt.  Bush played, but he had a marginal impact.  With no run game, Drew Brees threw the ball 43 times, but threw 2 interceptions.  He did get one touchdown to Marques Colston though.  In the end, the game was decided by a field goal in overtime.
    

    • Actual Score: New Orleans 24 – Chicago 27 (8-6)

Detroit 31 (9-5) @ Indianapolis 41

• Detroit runs into Indianapolis at the worst possible time.  The Lions are in a tight battle for the conference title, and the Wild Card.  Unfortunately Indianapolis is playing for home field advantage and looking to put the hurt on the Lions.  Peyton will have a field day passing on the second worst pass defense of 2007.

  • Post Week 15 Update: Did Peyton Manning have a “field day” as predicted?  I would say so.  He completed 28 of 37 passed for 318 yards and a touchdown.  On top of that, Damion Rhodes had a great day on the ground filling in the hurt Joseph Addai.  The Lions went with Orlovksy over the hurt Culpepper and he actually had  a pretty good game.  Offensively, Detroit has played two good games in a row, unfortunately their defense has to play too.
    

    • Actual Score: Detroit 21 (0-14) – Indianapolis 31

Green Bay 21 (5-9) @ Jacksonville 34

• This makes Jacksonville 4-0 against the NFC North.  The problem is all the NFC teams rely on short steady drives to win games.  Jacksonville has enough weapons to blow the game open at any time.  David Garrard won’t turn the ball over and let Green Bay in at anytime either.  Jacksonville big, Green Bay will be lucky to get the 21 points I predicted.

  • Post Week 15 Update: Green Bay had a good lead in this one, but started kicking field goals in the 2nd quarter.  Jacksonville rallied to put up 13 points in the 4th quarter and win. David Garrard had a pretty solid game, he’s played shaky lately, but he pulled it together late.
    

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 16 (5-9) – Jacksonville 20

Minnesota 27 (9-5) @ Arizona 10

• It’s hard to say if Kurt Warner will still be the starter, or if he’ll be in a nursing home.  Arizona will most likely be out of the playoffs long before week 15.  With Fitzgerald and Boldin at receiver, they do have a very good chance to pull this out against the 32nd rank pass defense in 2007.  I’m betting Jared Allen will offer more than a little assistance in that area.

  • Post Week 15 Update: Holy Tarvaris Jackson.  He’s the definition of a “Hot and cold” quarterback, this game he was on fire.  He only had to throw the ball 17 times, which is all the Vikings shoould ever need.  He finished the day 11 of 17 for 163 yards and 4 touchdowns.  That’s a passer rating of 135.5.  Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson ran for 165 yards.  Arizona was out of this one early going down 21 – 0.
    

    • Actual Score: Minnesota 35 (9-5) – Arizona 14

Week 15 Wrap-up: 18-28 Overall

Ooooh, almost a perfect week. I went 3-1 and only lost the Bears prediction on a overtime field goal. It’s funny because in my fantasy league where I pick matchup’s weekly (not after preseason like this), I was 1-3. Looking at the numbers, Arizona should have smashed Minnesota, New Orleans should have outscored the Bears, and Green Bay was a matchup of two underachieving teams.

Just a small note:  While my record may look rough, I’m right on the money with the Packers and Vikings records.

Week 16

New Orleans 34 @ Detroit 27 (9-6)

• I expect this one to be a shootout.  Kitna is not afraid to throw the ball around, no matter how many interceptions that might mean.  New Orleans has the most pass attempts out of any team in the last two years.  The deciding factor is Drew Brees.  In a shootout, Brees will be much more efficient.

  • Post Week 16 Update: Wow, the score was 42 to 7, but New Orleans could have scored 60 if they wanted. I don’t know what the problem is with Detroit, maybe it is Rod Marinelli. It can’t be the quarterbacks. Although they don’t exactly have Tom Brady back there, they’ve gotten pretty respectable play from them for a few games. Detroit has one more chance before they officially become the worst team in NFL history.

    • Actual Score: New Orleans 42 – Detroit 7 (0-15)

Atlanta 9 @ Minnesota 24 (10-5)

• Atlanta will be lucky to win two games this season.  I wouldn’t expect them to pull one out against a playoff contender like Minnesota.

  • Post Week 16 Update: Minnesota fumbled the ball 7 times, SEVEN times! They lost 5 of those and still had a shot to win with 2 minutes left. Tarvaris Jackson played like a stud for the third game in a row, but Adrian Peterson had only a meager 76 yards on the ground. Matt Ryan did just enough to squeeze out a win, which is what they’ve done all season.

    • Actual Score: Atlanta 24 – Minnesota 17 (9-6)

Green Bay 21 (6-9) @ Chicago 20 (4-11)

• Two teams with nothing to play for, sometimes makes for the best football.  This game will see a lot of high risk, high reward type plays.  With only bragging rights on the line, players will be looking to pad some stats and make some highlight reel plays.  Green Bay in the end.

  • Post Week 16 Update: This is one the few games this season the Bears have played REALLY bad. Some how, they still managed to pull out a overtime win. Green Bay’s offense was stuck all game and couldn’t get anything on the board. Chicago played themselves into a must win game in week 17, we’ll see if they show up to play, or play like they did against the Packers.

    • Actual Score: Green Bay 17 (5-10)- Chicago 20 (9-6)

Week 15 Wrap-up: 19-30 Overall

I went 1-2 this week, but I should have been 3-0. There’s no way Minnesota and Green Bay should have lost. I’m not surprised Minnesota did lose, but they had chance after chance to win and couldn’t get it done. Green Bay outplayed Chicago, but also couldn’t capitalize. Detroit, well Detroit was just Detroit.

Week 17

Detroit 24 (10-6) @ Green Bay 23 (6-10)

• In a must win game for the Lions, I will go with the veteran leadership of Kitna.  As much as Green Bay would like to play spoiler, Aaron Rodgers and the offense won’t be able to get it done when it counts.  Detroit with a late field goal.

Chicago 27 (5-11) @ Houston 9

• With nothing on the line, whoever might be behind center will probably play the game of his life.  Grossman, Orton, or Lovie Smith himself, whoever it might be will come through against a lathargic Houston team.

New York Giants 27 @ Minnesota 24 (10-6)

• The Minnesota Vikings are infamous for backing into the playoffs.  In games to clinch a playoff birth, bet against the Vikings.  The Giants are usually in a similar spot this time of year, but coming off the a Super Bowl winning season, I would expect them to find a way to get it done.

Final Standings

Minnesota 10-6 Overall / 5-1 in Division

Detroit 10-6 Overall / 4-2 in Division

Green Bay 6-10 Overall / 2-4 in Division

Chicago 5-11 Overall / 1-5 in Division

Tags: Fantasy, Minnesota, Predictions, Sports, Vikings

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